Prescriptive Analytics

Aegis

Prescriptive Analytics Engine for Telecom Churn

Most churn systems stop at prediction. Aegis adds explanation, counterfactual prescription, financial value, causal treatment-effect estimation, and backtesting.

Six-Stage Prescriptive Pipeline

Each stage builds on the last. From raw probability to actionable, financially-validated prescriptions.

Aegis Pipeline Flow
01
Predict
Calibrated churn probability via XGBoost ensemble
02
Explain
SHAP values reveal feature importance and interactions
03
Prescribe
DiCE counterfactuals with business constraints
04
Financial
NPV-style decisioning with WACC discounting
05
Causal
T-Learner CATE for treatment effect estimation
06
Validate
PSI drift monitoring + temporal backtesting

Validated at Scale

Tested against real-world datasets with rigorous validation.

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Tests Passing
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Coverage
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Criteo Dataset
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Top-Decile Uplift

Full Prescriptive Stack

Six specialized modules working as a unified pipeline.

Prediction

XGBoost Ensemble

Calibrated churn prediction with Platt scaling. Handles class imbalance, missing values, and high-cardinality categoricals out of the box.

Explanation

SHAP TreeExplainer

Model interpretation and causal analysis via DoWhy. Global and local feature importance with interaction effects.

Prescription

DiCE Counterfactuals

Actionable prescriptions with business constraints. Generates minimal-change interventions that respect feasibility bounds.

Financial

Expected Value Framework

NPV-style decisioning with WACC discounting. Converts churn probability into dollar-denominated retention ROI.

Causal

T-Learner CATE

Treatment effect estimation and sleeping dog detection. Identifies customers who would churn because of intervention.

Validation

Backtesting Engine

PSI drift monitoring and temporal validation. Walk-forward testing ensures model stability across time periods.

Python 3.12 XGBoost DoWhy SHAP DiCE EconML LightGBM

Ready to go beyond prediction?

See how Aegis transforms churn analytics from reactive dashboards to prescriptive, financially-validated action plans.